Non-preventable cases of breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer in 2050 in an elimination scenario of modifiable risk factors.

Most Western countries have increasing number of new cancer cases per year. Cancer incidence is primarily influenced by basically avoidable risk factors and an aging population. Through hypothetical elimination scenarios of multiple major risk factors for cancer, we estimated the number of new cancer cases that are non-preventable in 2050. We compare numbers of new postmenopausal breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer cases in 2021 to projected numbers of new cases in 2050 under prevention scenarios regarding smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption: no intervention, 50%, and 100% instant reduction. Cancer incidence data were derived from NORDCAN, and risk factor prevalence data from the Danish National Health Survey. Cancer projections were calculated with the Prevent program. Hypothetical 100% instant elimination of major risk factors for cancer in Denmark in 2022 will result in unchanged numbers of new breast and colorectal cancers in 2050. The number of new prostate cancers will increase by 25% compared to 2021. Unchanged risk factor levels will result in noticeable increase in cancer burden. Increase in life expectancy and age will entail an increase in cancer incidence, despite maximum effect of preventive actions in the population. Our results are important when planning future health care.

Prediction of Pathologic Complete Response in Breast Cancer Patients Comparing Magnetic Resonance Imaging with Ultrasound in Neoadjuvant Setting.

BACKGROUND: Some subgroups of breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) show high rates of pathologic complete response (pCR) in the breast, proposing the possibility of omitting surgery. Prediction of pCR is dependent on accurate imaging methods. This study investigated whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is better than ultrasound (US) in predicting pCR in breast cancer patients receiving NACT. METHODS: This institutional, retrospective study enrolled breast cancer patients receiving NACT who were examined by either MRI or combined US and mammography before surgery from 2016 to 2019. Imaging findings were compared with pathologic response evaluation of the tumor. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy for prediction of pCR were calculated and compared between MRI and US. RESULTS: Among 307 patients, 151 were examined by MRI and 156 by US. In the MRI group, 37 patients (24.5 %) had a pCR compared with 51 patients (32.7 %) in the US group. Radiologic complete response (rCR) was found in 35 patients (23.2 %) in the MRI group and 26 patients (16.7 %) in the US group. In the MRI and US groups, estimates were calculated respectively for sensitivity (87.7 % vs 91.4 %), specificity (56.8 % vs 33.3 %), PPV (86.2 % vs 73.8 %), NPV (60.0 % vs 65.4 %), and accuracy (80.1 % vs 72.4 %). CONCLUSIONS: In predicting pCR, MRI was more specific than US, but not sufficiently specific enough to be a valid predictor of pCR for omission of surgery. As an imaging method, MRI should be preferred when future studies investigating prediction of pCR in NACT patients are planned.